2022 (Submitted)
- F. Ejaz, T. Wöhling, A. Guthke, and W. Nowak, “Comprehensive uncertainty analysis for surface water and groundwater forecasts under climate change based on a lumped geo-hydrological model,” Journal of Hydrology.
2022 (submitted)
- H.-F. Hsueh, A. Guthke, T. Wöhling, and W. Nowak, “Optimized Predictive Coverage by Averaging Time-Windowed Bayesian Distributions,” Water Resources Research.
2022
- H. Hsueh, A. Guthke, T. Wöhling, and W. Nowak, “Diagnosis of model-structural errors with a sliding time-window Bayesian analysis,” Water Resources Research, vol. 58, p. e2021WR030590, 2022, doi: doi:10.1029/2021WR030590.
- I. Banerjee, P. Walter, A. Guthke, K. G. Mumford, and W. Nowak, “The Method of Forced Probabilities: A Computation Trick for Bayesian Model Evidence,” Computational Geosciences, 2022, doi: 10.1007/s10596-022-10179-x.
- A. Schäfer Rodrigues Silva et al., “Diagnosing Similarities in Probabilistic Multi-Model Ensembles - an Application to Soil-Plant-Growth-Modeling,” Modeling Earth Systems and Environment, vol. 8, pp. 5143–5175, 2022, doi: 10.1007/s40808-022-01427-1.
2021
- S. Reuschen, A. Guthke, and W. Nowak, “The Four Ways to Consider Measurement Noise in Bayesian Model Selection - And Which One to Choose,” Water Resources Research, vol. 57, p. e2021WR030391, 2021, doi: 10.1029/2021WR030391.
- I. Banerjee, A. Guthke, C. J. C. Van de Ven, K. G. Mumford, and W. Nowak, “Overcoming the model-data-fit problem in porous media: A quantitative method to compare invasion-percolation models to high-resolution data,” Water Resources Research, vol. 57, no. 7, Art. no. 7, 2021, doi: 10.1029/2021WR029986.
2020
- A. Guthke, “The Unified Risk Equation - An Attempt to Unify Risk Assessment across Disciplines,” Munich, Germany, Apr. 2020.
- H.-F. Hsueh, A. Guthke, T. Wöhling, and W. Nowak, “Diagnosing Model-structural Errors with a Sliding Time-window Bayesian Analysis,” online, Dec. 2020.
- C. Jackisch, A. Schibalski, B. Schröder, W. Nowak, and A. Guthke, “Providing relevant uncertainty information to decision makers: Subjective post-processing of rigorous Bayesian uncertainty assessment of model projections,” online, Dec. 2020.
- I. Banerjee, A. Guthke, C. J. C. V. D. Ven, K. Mumford, and W. Nowak, “Overcoming the Model-to-Experimental Data Fit Problem in Porous Media: a New Quantitative Method to Evaluate and Compare Models,” online, Dec. 2020.
- A. Guthke et al., “A unified framework for quantitative interdisciplinary flood risk assessment,” online, Dec. 2020.
- M. Höge, A. Guthke, and W. Nowak, “Bayesian Model Weighting: The Many Faces of Model Averaging,” Water, vol. 12, no. 2, Art. no. 2, 2020, doi: 10.3390/w12020309.
- A. Schäfer Rodrigues Silva, A. Guthke, M. Höge, O. A. Cirpka, and W. Nowak, “Strategies for simplifying reactive transport models - a Bayesian model comparison,” Water Resources Research, vol. 56, p. e2020WR028100, 2020, doi: 10.1029/2020WR028100.
2019
- A. Guthke, “Justifiability is key - Bayesian analysis of system and model complexity,” Esch-sur-Alzette, Luxembourg, Oct. 2019.
- M. Höge, A. Guthke, and W. Nowak, “The Hydrologist’s Guide to Bayesian Model Selection, Averaging and Combination,” Journal of Hydrology, vol. 572, pp. 96–107, May 2019, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.01.072.
- D. F. Motavita, R. Chow, A. Guthke, and W. Nowak, “The Comprehensive Differential Split-Sample Test: A stress-test for hydrological model robustness under climate variability,” Journal of Hydrology, vol. 573, pp. 501–515, 2019, doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.03.054.
2018
- Anneli. Guthke, “Model selection on solid ground: rigorous comparison of nine ways to evaluate Bayesian evidence,” Adelaide, Australia, Sep. 2018.
- A. Guthke, “A Bayesian take on model choice uncertainty: Statistical tools for model evaluation, selection and combination,” Karlsruhe, Germany, Jul. 2018.
- A. Guthke and W. Nowak, “Entropy-based experimental design for optimal model discrimination in the Geosciences,” Santander, Spain, May 2018.
- A. Guthke, M. Höge, and W. Nowak, “How model selection and averaging strategies help us improve hydrological models,” Vienna, Austria, Apr. 2018.
- A. Schäfer-Rodrigues-Silva, A. Guthke, and W. Nowak, “The importance of model similarity in multi-model problems,” Stuttgart, Germany, Feb. 2018.
- A. Schäfer-Rodrigues-Silva, Anneli. Guthke, and W. Nowak, “Quantifying similarity in multi-model ensembles,” Tübingen, Germany, Apr. 2018.
- A. Guthke, S. Oladyshkin, F. Mohammadi, R. Kopmann, and W. Nowak, “Bayesian model selection under computational time constraints: application to river modeling,” Washington, D.C., USA, Dec. 2018.
- S. Oladyshkin, A. Guthke, F. Mohamadi, R. Kopmann, and W. Nowak, “Model selection under computational time constraints: application to river engineering,” Saint-Malo, France, Jun. 2018.
- A. Schäfer-Rodrigues-Silva, T. Seitz, Anneli. Guthke, and W. Nowak, “Quantifying and visualizing similarity in multi-model ensembles,” Cargese, France, Jun. 2018.
- A. Schäfer-Rodrigues-Silva, T. Seitz, Anneli. Guthke, and W. Nowak, “Working with multi-model ensembles - what makes models differ and how can we visualize ensembles?,” Tübingen, Germany, Jun. 2018.
- P. Darscheid, A. Guthke, and U. Ehret, “A Maximum-Entropy Method to Estimate Discrete Distributions from Samples Ensuring Nonzero Probabilities,” Entropy, vol. 20, no. 8, Art. no. 8, 2018, doi: 10.3390/e20080601.
- F. Mohammadi, R. Kopmann, A. Guthke, S. Oladyshkin, and W. Nowak, “Bayesian selection of hydro-morphodynamic models under computational time constraints.,” Advances in Water Resources, vol. 117, pp. 53–64, 2018, doi: 10.1016/j.advwatres.2018.05.007.
2017
- A. Guthke, M. Höge, and W. Nowak, “Bayesian model evidence as a model evaluation metric,” Vienna, Austria, Apr. 2017.
- A. Guthke, “Defensible Model Complexity: A Call for Data-Based and Goal-Oriented Model Choice,” Groundwater, vol. 55, no. 5, Art. no. 5, 2017, doi: 10.1111/gwat.12554.
2016
- A. Guthke, “Bayesian assessment of conceptual uncertainty in hydrosystem modeling,” Doctoral dissertation, Universität Tübingen, 2016. [Online]. Available: https://bibliographie.uni-tuebingen.de/xmlui/handle/10900/71412
- W. Nowak and A. Guthke, “Entropy-based experimental design for optimal model discrimination in the geosciences,” Entropy, vol. 18, no. 11, Art. no. 11, 2016, doi: 10.3390/e18110409.